Sony: Winning the DVD Battle But Losing the Innovation War?

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Sony: Winning the DVD Battle But Losing the Innovation War?

Posted by Scott Anthony on February 19, 2008 9:23 AM


It’s often said that generals “fight the last war.” They use tactics that worked in the last war and struggle when conditions change in ways that render those tactics ineffective. For example, after years of bloody trench warfare in World War I, France built heavy fortifications along its borders (the “Maginot Line”) to prevent a full-on assault. The German’s innovative “blitzkrieg” model obviated France’s brute force.
Companies oftentimes run into the same trap. They assume tactics that led to success in the past will lead to success in the future. Even worse, companies can choose the right tactics to win a particular battle, only to find out they have lost the innovation war.
This often happens in disruptive circumstances. Market-leading incumbents can do everything absolutely right, achieve dominance in their core market, and stumble in the face of a disruptive attacker that changes the game through simplicity, convenience, or low prices.
Consider Sony’s efforts in the battle for next-generation DVD technology. Sony’s Blu-ray technology appears to have won a decisive victory over Toshiba’s HD-DVD technology. Indeed, Toshiba announced today that it would cease production of its HD DVD players and recorders immediately. However, that victory will be meaningless if the real battleground turns out to be the fight for disruptive devices and business models that make it simpler, easier, and cheaper to access content over the Internet.
Sony’s obsessive focus on Blu-ray traces back to one of the most well studied cases in business history: the so-called standard wars for video cassette recording technology. Sony’s Betamax format hit the market first, and offered technologically superior performance to Matsushita’s VHS standard. Yet Sony lost the market due primarily to its failure to support emerging video rental retailers like Blockbuster.
Determined not to repeat past mistakes, Sony invested heavily in the next-generation DVD contest. It has worked hard to align with major movie studios. It made sure its PlayStation 3 video game console had Blu-ray technology, even if it meant that the product would either lose money or cost hundreds of dollars more than competitive devices.
Sony’s efforts paid off. In early January Warner Bros. agreed to exclusively offer movies in the Blu-ray format, giving Blu-ray an estimated 2-to-1 content advantage over HD-DVD. Last week Wal-Mart announced that it planned to pull HD-DVDs from its shelves. Rumors are swirling that Toshiba might shut its HD-DVD unit down this week. By all counts the battle appears to be over.
The thing is, even if Sony wins dominant share in the next generation DVD market, it might not mean much.
There will always be consumers who demand the very best quality DVD technology so they can enjoy movie-theater like performance on their increasingly large high definition televisions. But the explosion of Internet-delivered video shows how many consumers happily trade off picture quality for convenience and low prices.
It’s entirely possible that the high-end DVD market could be relegated to niche status as companies like Apple, Comcast, Netflix, Cisco, Motorola and many others race to improve the ability to download movies over the Internet. Winners could be content providers or companies that develop new business models that make it simple, easy, and cheap to obtain content.
Sony has done everything right in the Blu-ray battle. But it might face long-term trouble if it turns out that its full-on Blue-ray assault distracted it from addressing disruptive developments in the video delivery market.
Innovation is a multi-front contest. Focusing on the mainstream and the high end is insufficient. Winning the innovation war requires mastering the ability to counter threats emerging in the low-end of existing markets and to seize opportunities in new markets.
To pinpoint disruptive developments, make sure you constantly ask:
1) When a customer buys your product and service, what else do they consider? Your competition likely includes companies outside of the artificial walls of your product category.
2) Has an emerging competitor brought a simpler, cheaper solution to your least-demanding customers?
3) Has an emerging competitor created a more convenient, accessible, or affordable solution that opens consumption to people with less money or skills?
 


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